Titel H.O.R.S.E. Poker Strategy: In the Mix -- Card Memory in the Stud Games Autor/Erfasser externe Quelle Firmenportrait Swiss Poker System powered by HELP.ch

David Behr Pokernews.com
Stud games are often referred to as "old man" games, since it seems that the average age 
of any random player at a stud cash game table is about 60. The younger generation of 
poker players all prefer to play action games such as no-limit hold'em and pot-limit 
Omaha. These flop games are generally easier to learn, allow for novices to get lucky in 
a way that doesn't exist in stud, and don't require as much in the way of focus or board-
reading skill. It may take "a lifetime to master" hold'em, but it really does only 
take "a minute to learn." 

Stud variants make up a whopping 60% of the typical H.O.R.S.E. rotation -- razz, seven-
card stud (high only) and seven-card stud eight-or-better are all stud variants of 
poker. Thus people who hope to become excellent mixed-game players need to branch out 
from the aggressive action-junkie philosophy that has come to rule the flop games in the 
last few years. That style of play will certainly help them in the two rounds of flop 
games. But it's a different set of skills that are required to crush the stud games. 
Paramount among those skills is card memory. 

Card memory, in its simplest definition, is remembering what cards have already been 
exposed. In a typical hand of a stud-based game, before the first betting round has 
commenced, each player has the ability to see ten exposed cards -- the door card of each 
of the eight players at the table, plus his own two hole cards. Compare that with 
hold'em, where each player has seen only two cards (his own two hole cards). That means 
each player has five times as much information in stud-based games than he does in 
hold'em, but only if he's paying careful attention to the table and to the cards that 
are exposed. That's the first rule of stud -- always, always pay attention to what's 
happening at the table. It's a good rule for hold'em, but it's even more important in 
stud. If some opponents fold while a player's attention is directed elsewhere, he's 
missed out on information and handicapped himself for the hand. 

Knowing which cards are dead and out of play can make a huge difference in two respects: 
deciding whether to play the hand at all, and in determining how far to chase certain 
draws. For example, a flush draw in stud is not necessarily the same as a flush draw in 
hold'em. In hold'em, a flush draw is generally viewed as about 4.25-to-1 to come in on 
the next card, because it's never possible to know what cards opponents are holding. At 
most, a player will have seen six cards (the two in his own hand, plus three on the flop 
and one on the turn), leaving 46 unknown cards. Nine of those unknown cards are presumed 
to be the suit that will fill the flush. That makes the ratio of non-flush cards to 
flush cards 37-to-9, or just over 4-to-1. 

In stud, by the time a player is four to a flush (assume for the sake of argument this 
happens on fifth street), that player will have seen his own five cards, plus three 
upcards of any opponent who has also made it to fifth street, plus upcards of everyone 
else dealt into the hand. At a full table, with one opponent on fifth street, that means 
fourteen cards have been exposed. If only four of those cards are of the suit that will 
make the player's flush, the odds of the flush coming on the next card are 29-to-9, or 
just over 3-to-1. On the other hand, if the player has been paying careful attention and 
has seen four other cards of his suit exposed in other players' hands, that means that 
there are only five remaining cards which make his flush, changing to the odds from 29-
to-9 to 33-to-5, or about 6.5-to-1. Knowing this information could change what would 
otherwise have been at least a call into a fold. 

Paying attention to exposed cards can also inform a player's decision on third street to 
continue with the hand or fold. For example a hand like 8c, 8h / Qh loses most of its 
strength if another eight and one or two queens are already exposed. A hand like 7c, 
8c / 9s, a marginal hand under the best of circumstances, is a clear fold if two or more 
tens and/or two or more clubs are already exposed. The hand does not have enough high-
card value to play on that basis alone. With the chances of catching a flush or straight 
greatly reduced because those cards are already out, it becomes quite easy to toss the 
hand into the muck. However, if the player dealt this hand has not paid attention to 
what other cards are exposed, he may play this hand all the way to the river, costing 
himself a significant number of bets, chasing a slim draw that is unlikely to come in. 

There's no easy way to learn how to memorize all the cards that have been exposed. Some 
players try to order them by rank, then by suit. Others just try to keep track of ranks, 
or just try to keep track of suits. While the latter are not ideal, as they don't keep 
track of all of the available information, something is better than nothing. The 
information is out there -- finding a way to retain it will go a long way towards 
improving one's stud game.